Let's see ...
Canadian house sales up in February, March and April.
Toronto Stock Exchange up 30% from low.
Interest rates at historic low.
Inflation non existent.
Unemployment at 8% ...when 7% is considered full employment by definition.
Canada has still not had 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth ...the actual definition of a recession.
Bank of Canada calls for overall economy to grow this year.
Survey of Canadian corp profits ...55 out of TSE60 are better than expected ...many showing significant growth, like Loblaws (73% increase in profits)
...And people are negative and miserable because???????
As Perrin Beatty said yesterday: "worry last Fall was that Gov't was not paying attention to economic crisis. Worry now is that they are obsessed with it".
It looks like all the uber expesive infrastructure spending will be spent about 18 months from now ...well after the economy has recovered. At that point, it's not "stimulus" ...its inflationary and causing structural deficits for future generations.
Obama is wrong.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Government shouldn't run businesses
Bottom line is ...buy the US banks for the long term. They are very strong ...despite what you see in the media. Most of the ones that received bailout money are trying to give it back because it came with so many strings attached it meant they can't operate. This is what happens when the government gets in the business of running banks ...the results of which are these report cards. The government definition of the "stress tests" is not like anything the rational market would use ...so it's going to distort things and present a confusing message for the public. Frankly, I think it will make for a good buying opportunity.
The bigger question, the more concerning question, is the degree to which the Obama Administration wants to run a variety of businesses, including banks ...and wants to dictate how many other businesses should operate. When you take public funds and operate businesses in the name of the "public good" ...it's called socialism. And socialism, by definition is not a switch that is either on or off ...it is a creeping mindset that takes hold and is very difficult to undo. Ironically, some of the greatest leaders of our time have been the ones who "broke" the socialist trends ....Ronald Regan, Margaret Thatcher, even Brian Mulroney here following the Trudeau/Turner experiement.
As long as businesses are allowed to operate in a "free" and rational market, without the government interfering, then everything will be fine. But by the time that it is clear to everyone that Obama has marched off in the wrong direction, I fear it will take decades to undo. The good news is that the "markets" appear to have figured this out ...you can tell by the way they are reacting ...and they just might figure out a solution too.
Have faith in the free and rational markets!
The bigger question, the more concerning question, is the degree to which the Obama Administration wants to run a variety of businesses, including banks ...and wants to dictate how many other businesses should operate. When you take public funds and operate businesses in the name of the "public good" ...it's called socialism. And socialism, by definition is not a switch that is either on or off ...it is a creeping mindset that takes hold and is very difficult to undo. Ironically, some of the greatest leaders of our time have been the ones who "broke" the socialist trends ....Ronald Regan, Margaret Thatcher, even Brian Mulroney here following the Trudeau/Turner experiement.
As long as businesses are allowed to operate in a "free" and rational market, without the government interfering, then everything will be fine. But by the time that it is clear to everyone that Obama has marched off in the wrong direction, I fear it will take decades to undo. The good news is that the "markets" appear to have figured this out ...you can tell by the way they are reacting ...and they just might figure out a solution too.
Have faith in the free and rational markets!
Monday, August 18, 2008
Live from Mesopotamia!
Things over here are very busy!
Iraq is hot in the summer ....about 55 most days and cools off to the mid-40s at night. Thankfully, it's a dry heat or no one would survive. It's hard enough as it is ....the soles of my shoes melted on the street in Baghdad the other day, and it wasn't because of a bomb!! Actually, the security situation has improved here a lot lately. There are still incidents most days, but nothing like it was. People are slowly beginning to return to normal lives ...it's impressive to see how resilient people can be. Families are close here, which has a big impact on people's ability to cope with the instability. Material things don't matter much ...it's a simple life ...but you can tell when people are happy and surrounded by the people they love. The politicians are just the same ...normal people for the most part. But they are truly heroic in the way they push forward to try to make this "thing" work.
I met a man who has become a friend over recent months. He is respected for many reasons, but I couldn't quite understand why he was able to cross certain ethnic and sectarian lines when others couldn't. Finally, he explained to me that he had spent seven years in Abu Graihb prison under the tyranny of Sadam Hussein. He was tortured and experienced things no man should live through. But while he was there, he got to know some of his fellow prisoners ....several of the survivors (not many in total) are now leaders of different political groups. As a result, they have a unique bond ...and an appreciation for the gift of life ....and the need to change things for the future of the country. It's not surprising, then, that they are so fearless in their resolve. They need help, but they will figure it out and in time. Hopefully, this amazing country will reach its full potential.
I will be travelling a lot over the coming months ....Baghdad, Amman, Cairo, UK, Rome, Dubai, Australia, Indonesia ...all before I head home for Christmas! The adventure continues ...and I am truly grateful for the experience!
Salam Alaykom! (Peace be with you!)
Iraq is hot in the summer ....about 55 most days and cools off to the mid-40s at night. Thankfully, it's a dry heat or no one would survive. It's hard enough as it is ....the soles of my shoes melted on the street in Baghdad the other day, and it wasn't because of a bomb!! Actually, the security situation has improved here a lot lately. There are still incidents most days, but nothing like it was. People are slowly beginning to return to normal lives ...it's impressive to see how resilient people can be. Families are close here, which has a big impact on people's ability to cope with the instability. Material things don't matter much ...it's a simple life ...but you can tell when people are happy and surrounded by the people they love. The politicians are just the same ...normal people for the most part. But they are truly heroic in the way they push forward to try to make this "thing" work.
I met a man who has become a friend over recent months. He is respected for many reasons, but I couldn't quite understand why he was able to cross certain ethnic and sectarian lines when others couldn't. Finally, he explained to me that he had spent seven years in Abu Graihb prison under the tyranny of Sadam Hussein. He was tortured and experienced things no man should live through. But while he was there, he got to know some of his fellow prisoners ....several of the survivors (not many in total) are now leaders of different political groups. As a result, they have a unique bond ...and an appreciation for the gift of life ....and the need to change things for the future of the country. It's not surprising, then, that they are so fearless in their resolve. They need help, but they will figure it out and in time. Hopefully, this amazing country will reach its full potential.
I will be travelling a lot over the coming months ....Baghdad, Amman, Cairo, UK, Rome, Dubai, Australia, Indonesia ...all before I head home for Christmas! The adventure continues ...and I am truly grateful for the experience!
Salam Alaykom! (Peace be with you!)
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Off to Iraq!
The adventure continues!!
I have accepted an interesting offer to go to Iraq and work as the Governance Director and as the lead interlocateur with the Iraqi government.
It's crazy, I know ...and I don't really want to leave Jordan and the program here. But the opportunity in Iraq is unique and comes at a time when I believe there is finally some hope for real change. The goal is to try to build some political will and find reasons for people to agree on the issues affecting the lives and future of the Iraqi people. I'm realistic ....but hopeful!
So, I'll be headed to Erbil in the next month or so ..travelling to Baghdad about once a month. So far, key leaders have accepted the invitiations to come and meet in Erbil, but some face time in Baghdad will be important.
It's going to be an interesting time ...for many reasons! But I'm looking forward to the challenge.
Stay tuned ....
I have accepted an interesting offer to go to Iraq and work as the Governance Director and as the lead interlocateur with the Iraqi government.
It's crazy, I know ...and I don't really want to leave Jordan and the program here. But the opportunity in Iraq is unique and comes at a time when I believe there is finally some hope for real change. The goal is to try to build some political will and find reasons for people to agree on the issues affecting the lives and future of the Iraqi people. I'm realistic ....but hopeful!
So, I'll be headed to Erbil in the next month or so ..travelling to Baghdad about once a month. So far, key leaders have accepted the invitiations to come and meet in Erbil, but some face time in Baghdad will be important.
It's going to be an interesting time ...for many reasons! But I'm looking forward to the challenge.
Stay tuned ....
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Thoughts for 2008
I resisted the temptation on New Year’s Day to fire out something pithy about 2008 being full of wonder and surprise and optimism. Instead, I opted to settle into the New Year for a few days and think about the year ahead in the context of all the changes we are facing this year and how they might affect our lives.
Change number one ….”it’s the economy stupid”. With all the focus on world events, elections, terrorism and natural disasters, it looks like 2008 is the year that the economy at home can no longer be put on the backburner. The attention in the media will be on oil prices above $100 per barrel, which is significant enough. But what that means to families is a rise in prices across the board, including groceries and other commodities like coffee, sugar, and the feed our farmers use to raise the livestock we consume. Inflation has been creeping up for the past 18 months in all the core areas, slowly taking away larger chunks of your disposable income. The falling US dollar has resulted in other currencies, like the Canadian dollar, rising out of proportion with the global economy. This makes Canadian goods and services more expensive in a tougher market.
It is not hard to imagine companies, governments, school boards, hospitals and the like reducing the size of their labour force …laying people off. It’s a cycle of events that economists will tell you is healthy over time to ensure we keep trying to find new ways to be more productive with fewer resources. It’s true …but for families who are working hard to make ends meet, it’s likely to be a tough year.
The good news is that the political leadership in Canada has begun to say the right things and show a little leadership. Reducing the GST tax to 5% made a notable difference on January 1st. Not much, but enough that it made people feel better.
In the United States, the Presidential Election gives the hopefuls a chance to lay out their plans for the future. As the war in Iraq takes less of the centre stage, the economy has begun to emerge as a central issue. No doubt, Americans who are paying more for things and getting paid less, are likely to make it THE central issue in November. Elections have a way of focusing attention, especially in a recession. The bad news is the US federal budget that has been negotiated in recent days spells out whopping deficits and unprecedented debt, the likes of which future generations will not forgive us for.
However, I have faith in the “household economic unit”. People have always shown tremendous resilience and creativity in managing the family cheque book. So maybe it’s a less expensive holiday this year, or more attention to the bills and some basic conservation. One way or another, families will lead governments, and make the changes they need to keep their heads above water this year. That’s not optimism …it’s what happens when people are forced to take more responsibility for their lives and their actions …they figure it out.
Change number two …political leadership. Elections are in the air. Several Canadian provinces are preparing to go to the polls. The federal minority government in Canada will soon pass the 2nd anniversary, which is rare for minority governments. The campaign machines are all set to go when the Prime Minister thinks he can win a majority …expected to be sometime this year. And the there is the Presidential Election in the United States.
As a Canadian living in the Middle East, I am always amazed at the level of knowledge and attention paid by people all over the world to US politics. People here know the candidates, know the issues, and often express support or criticism for a candidate or their policies. It’s a big deal …I know. It’s not just about choosing a new “leader of the free world”, it’s about the end of the Bush era in the White House. Change …it will definitely come, regardless of who wins. “Change” as a concept, as an idea, what it means …will be debated to the point of making us all ill. Candidates will argue the finer points of complicated policies on network television every day for the next eleven months. It’s a great reason for a rise in DVD sales and rentals.
The prospect of new leadership does result in some optimism. On the heals of new leaders in Great Britain, France, China, and many other countries in 2007, a new administration in the US will be seen as a new opportunity in a smaller and smaller world.
Change number three …it’s a smaller world. It’s a trend that has been going on for years, but 2008 will see some of the implications of events that have been lining up since the 60’s.
Part of this effect results from technology. Information can whisk around the world instantly, and more and more people have access to it. The result is that we are amazingly well informed about events around the world. For years, the focus has been on creating the systems to make it all happen. Now it has happened and this is the year, in my opinion, that we settle in to it simply being a part of our lives. The impact is enormous …it is a social shift that affects our collective psychology.
The theory is that every decision we make in life is based on either fear or desire. Even the decision to get out of bed in the morning is based on either the fear of being late, or the desire to do something. How many people get up early on weekends but can’t drag themselves out of bed during the work week?
Those inputs that affect the fear and desire equation have changed. The more information we have, the more there is to be afraid about or motivated by. It’s a delicate balance at the best of times. In 2008, we will have been “living with” the new information age for about 8 years …a typical cycle, or roughly how long it takes for innovation to become part of our lives and not new innovation.
Events in Kenya, China, Sudan, cities in Europe have all become part of our regular conversation …in the same breathe as events in our local communities. We are moved by such events and they change the way we feel about our lives as a result. In some cases, our priorities shift or our attitudes change because of this global conversation we are having.
People who are much smarter than I am will write the books and provide the analysis. I can only hope that the growing global conversation helps us to understand each other a little better. To me, that would be a pretty good outcome for 2008.
Change number one ….”it’s the economy stupid”. With all the focus on world events, elections, terrorism and natural disasters, it looks like 2008 is the year that the economy at home can no longer be put on the backburner. The attention in the media will be on oil prices above $100 per barrel, which is significant enough. But what that means to families is a rise in prices across the board, including groceries and other commodities like coffee, sugar, and the feed our farmers use to raise the livestock we consume. Inflation has been creeping up for the past 18 months in all the core areas, slowly taking away larger chunks of your disposable income. The falling US dollar has resulted in other currencies, like the Canadian dollar, rising out of proportion with the global economy. This makes Canadian goods and services more expensive in a tougher market.
It is not hard to imagine companies, governments, school boards, hospitals and the like reducing the size of their labour force …laying people off. It’s a cycle of events that economists will tell you is healthy over time to ensure we keep trying to find new ways to be more productive with fewer resources. It’s true …but for families who are working hard to make ends meet, it’s likely to be a tough year.
The good news is that the political leadership in Canada has begun to say the right things and show a little leadership. Reducing the GST tax to 5% made a notable difference on January 1st. Not much, but enough that it made people feel better.
In the United States, the Presidential Election gives the hopefuls a chance to lay out their plans for the future. As the war in Iraq takes less of the centre stage, the economy has begun to emerge as a central issue. No doubt, Americans who are paying more for things and getting paid less, are likely to make it THE central issue in November. Elections have a way of focusing attention, especially in a recession. The bad news is the US federal budget that has been negotiated in recent days spells out whopping deficits and unprecedented debt, the likes of which future generations will not forgive us for.
However, I have faith in the “household economic unit”. People have always shown tremendous resilience and creativity in managing the family cheque book. So maybe it’s a less expensive holiday this year, or more attention to the bills and some basic conservation. One way or another, families will lead governments, and make the changes they need to keep their heads above water this year. That’s not optimism …it’s what happens when people are forced to take more responsibility for their lives and their actions …they figure it out.
Change number two …political leadership. Elections are in the air. Several Canadian provinces are preparing to go to the polls. The federal minority government in Canada will soon pass the 2nd anniversary, which is rare for minority governments. The campaign machines are all set to go when the Prime Minister thinks he can win a majority …expected to be sometime this year. And the there is the Presidential Election in the United States.
As a Canadian living in the Middle East, I am always amazed at the level of knowledge and attention paid by people all over the world to US politics. People here know the candidates, know the issues, and often express support or criticism for a candidate or their policies. It’s a big deal …I know. It’s not just about choosing a new “leader of the free world”, it’s about the end of the Bush era in the White House. Change …it will definitely come, regardless of who wins. “Change” as a concept, as an idea, what it means …will be debated to the point of making us all ill. Candidates will argue the finer points of complicated policies on network television every day for the next eleven months. It’s a great reason for a rise in DVD sales and rentals.
The prospect of new leadership does result in some optimism. On the heals of new leaders in Great Britain, France, China, and many other countries in 2007, a new administration in the US will be seen as a new opportunity in a smaller and smaller world.
Change number three …it’s a smaller world. It’s a trend that has been going on for years, but 2008 will see some of the implications of events that have been lining up since the 60’s.
Part of this effect results from technology. Information can whisk around the world instantly, and more and more people have access to it. The result is that we are amazingly well informed about events around the world. For years, the focus has been on creating the systems to make it all happen. Now it has happened and this is the year, in my opinion, that we settle in to it simply being a part of our lives. The impact is enormous …it is a social shift that affects our collective psychology.
The theory is that every decision we make in life is based on either fear or desire. Even the decision to get out of bed in the morning is based on either the fear of being late, or the desire to do something. How many people get up early on weekends but can’t drag themselves out of bed during the work week?
Those inputs that affect the fear and desire equation have changed. The more information we have, the more there is to be afraid about or motivated by. It’s a delicate balance at the best of times. In 2008, we will have been “living with” the new information age for about 8 years …a typical cycle, or roughly how long it takes for innovation to become part of our lives and not new innovation.
Events in Kenya, China, Sudan, cities in Europe have all become part of our regular conversation …in the same breathe as events in our local communities. We are moved by such events and they change the way we feel about our lives as a result. In some cases, our priorities shift or our attitudes change because of this global conversation we are having.
People who are much smarter than I am will write the books and provide the analysis. I can only hope that the growing global conversation helps us to understand each other a little better. To me, that would be a pretty good outcome for 2008.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Holding each other to a higher standard.
It's NOT about color... It's about behavior. Many of us are familiar with Bill Cosby, as a TV personality and entertainer …and because he speaks his mind. In this piece, he speaks about “African-Americans” …but his point applies to all of us: We have to start holding each other to a higher standard. Blaming others is no longer acceptable.
"They're standing on the corner and they can't speak English. I can't even talk the way these people talk: Why you ain't, Where you is, What he drive, Where he stay, Where he work, Who you be..
And I blamed the kid until I heard the mother talk. And then I heard the father talk. Everybody knows it's important to speak English except these knuckleheads. You can't be a doctor with that kind of crap coming out of your mouth.
In fact you will never get any kind of job making a decent living. People marched and were hit in the face with rocks to get an education, and now we've got these knuckleheads walking around. The lower economic people are not holding up their end in this deal. These people are not parenting. They are buying things for kids. $500 sneakers for what? And they won't spend $200 for Hooked on Phonics. I am talking about these people who cry when their son is standing there in an orange suit. Where were you when he was 2? Where were you when he was 12?? Where were you when he was 18 and how come you didn't know that he had a pistol?And where is the father? Or who is his father?
People putting their clothes on backward: Isn't that a sign of something gone wrong? People with their hats on backward, pants down around the crack, isn't that a sign of something? Or are you waiting for Jesus to pull his pants up? Isn't it a sign of something when she has her dress all the way up and got all type of needles [piercing] going through her body? What part of Africa did this come from? We are not Africans. Those people are not Africans; they don't know a thing about Africa. With names like Shaniqua, Taliqua and Mohammed and all of that crap, and all of them are in jail. Brown or black versus the Board of Education is no longer the white person's problem.
We have got to take the neighborhood back. People used to be ashamed. We have millionaire football players who cannot read. We have million-dollar basketball players who can't write two paragraphs. We, as black folks have to do a better job. We have to start holding each other to a higher standard.
We cannot blame the white people any longer."
Dr. William Henry "Bill" Cosby, Jr., Ed.D.
"They're standing on the corner and they can't speak English. I can't even talk the way these people talk: Why you ain't, Where you is, What he drive, Where he stay, Where he work, Who you be..
And I blamed the kid until I heard the mother talk. And then I heard the father talk. Everybody knows it's important to speak English except these knuckleheads. You can't be a doctor with that kind of crap coming out of your mouth.
In fact you will never get any kind of job making a decent living. People marched and were hit in the face with rocks to get an education, and now we've got these knuckleheads walking around. The lower economic people are not holding up their end in this deal. These people are not parenting. They are buying things for kids. $500 sneakers for what? And they won't spend $200 for Hooked on Phonics. I am talking about these people who cry when their son is standing there in an orange suit. Where were you when he was 2? Where were you when he was 12?? Where were you when he was 18 and how come you didn't know that he had a pistol?And where is the father? Or who is his father?
People putting their clothes on backward: Isn't that a sign of something gone wrong? People with their hats on backward, pants down around the crack, isn't that a sign of something? Or are you waiting for Jesus to pull his pants up? Isn't it a sign of something when she has her dress all the way up and got all type of needles [piercing] going through her body? What part of Africa did this come from? We are not Africans. Those people are not Africans; they don't know a thing about Africa. With names like Shaniqua, Taliqua and Mohammed and all of that crap, and all of them are in jail. Brown or black versus the Board of Education is no longer the white person's problem.
We have got to take the neighborhood back. People used to be ashamed. We have millionaire football players who cannot read. We have million-dollar basketball players who can't write two paragraphs. We, as black folks have to do a better job. We have to start holding each other to a higher standard.
We cannot blame the white people any longer."
Dr. William Henry "Bill" Cosby, Jr., Ed.D.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Pay close attention to Annapolis
It’s complicated. We know that. Textbooks will be written about the players and politics that lead up to the Annapolis Peace Conference in November of this year. With almost 4 million people in Jordan of Palestinian origin, what matters is how it will affect them.
On the surface, one could say that it’s not likely to change much. However, closer scrutiny shows that the impact could be profound. Failure means instability ...instability brings fear … and fear results in a multitude of consequences.
When opposition forces in Jordan criticize the government for manipulating the Parliamentary election that took place on November 20th, they are implying that if there were truly free and fair elections, Jordan’s Islamists could follow the lead of Hamas in Palestine and rise to power. This is debatable, but the possibility is enough to cause “global flinching”. Jordan is a significant ally to the US and protecting safety and security may be seen by some as more important than pursuing democratic reforms.
When Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert meet with US President George W. Bush in Annapolis on the 27th of November, the world will be holding it’s breath. Not because anyone expects a signed deal on a two-state solution, but because people will be waiting to see if peace is even possible. Clearly, there are some who don’t want peace ...it would remove their raison d’etre.
There are signs that Hamas is divided, and not only because some of its leaders are in jails or in other countries, but because there are those who are tired and horrified by the reality of violence, while some still see a gun as the only vehicle for change in a society torn apart and witness to Palestinians fighting Palestinians ….brother against brother.
Many are calling this, “the last chance conference.” Failure of the Annapolis Conference would affect the entire region. At stake for Jordan is the refugee issue (roughly half of the population who add to the political, economic and social strain), internal security arrangements, a commitment to guard religious and holy sites in East Jerusalem, the water issue, and economic cooperation that might enable the rehabilitation of the refugee “camps”. All of which is in addition to the issue of common security if the failure of the Conference results in growing extremism and fundamentalist movements in Jordan and the region.
It is not just a question of right-of-return or cash compensation. It is a question of dignity, of a need to feel like they belong. They want to truly enjoy a notion of citizenship that removes the stigma of being visitors to Jordan who have worn out their welcome.
The lack of hope is further enforced by a belief that both leaders, Mr. Abbas and Mr. Olmert, are entering negotiations from very weak positions. Mr. Abbas and his Fatah Party are in an open conflict with Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. Mr. Olmert is very unpopular in Israel and almost lost his position following the report on the conflict with Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
By contrast, His Majesty King Abdullah II is a beacon of hope and a voice of moderation. With the aim of providing an Arab and Islamic “safety net”, he has proactively engaged all the political players in the region and many around the world. He has also spoken of the risks involved and the need to seize the opportunity
The idea of resolving the issue of citizenship is a worthwhile goal, but expectations of it resulting from the Annapolis Conference are slim. There is a lack of faith in political leadership. The bottom line is, if the Annapolis Conference is doomed to mediocrity, there will be a resulting drag on democracy efforts in the region.
On the surface, one could say that it’s not likely to change much. However, closer scrutiny shows that the impact could be profound. Failure means instability ...instability brings fear … and fear results in a multitude of consequences.
When opposition forces in Jordan criticize the government for manipulating the Parliamentary election that took place on November 20th, they are implying that if there were truly free and fair elections, Jordan’s Islamists could follow the lead of Hamas in Palestine and rise to power. This is debatable, but the possibility is enough to cause “global flinching”. Jordan is a significant ally to the US and protecting safety and security may be seen by some as more important than pursuing democratic reforms.
When Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert meet with US President George W. Bush in Annapolis on the 27th of November, the world will be holding it’s breath. Not because anyone expects a signed deal on a two-state solution, but because people will be waiting to see if peace is even possible. Clearly, there are some who don’t want peace ...it would remove their raison d’etre.
There are signs that Hamas is divided, and not only because some of its leaders are in jails or in other countries, but because there are those who are tired and horrified by the reality of violence, while some still see a gun as the only vehicle for change in a society torn apart and witness to Palestinians fighting Palestinians ….brother against brother.
Many are calling this, “the last chance conference.” Failure of the Annapolis Conference would affect the entire region. At stake for Jordan is the refugee issue (roughly half of the population who add to the political, economic and social strain), internal security arrangements, a commitment to guard religious and holy sites in East Jerusalem, the water issue, and economic cooperation that might enable the rehabilitation of the refugee “camps”. All of which is in addition to the issue of common security if the failure of the Conference results in growing extremism and fundamentalist movements in Jordan and the region.
It is not just a question of right-of-return or cash compensation. It is a question of dignity, of a need to feel like they belong. They want to truly enjoy a notion of citizenship that removes the stigma of being visitors to Jordan who have worn out their welcome.
The lack of hope is further enforced by a belief that both leaders, Mr. Abbas and Mr. Olmert, are entering negotiations from very weak positions. Mr. Abbas and his Fatah Party are in an open conflict with Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. Mr. Olmert is very unpopular in Israel and almost lost his position following the report on the conflict with Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
By contrast, His Majesty King Abdullah II is a beacon of hope and a voice of moderation. With the aim of providing an Arab and Islamic “safety net”, he has proactively engaged all the political players in the region and many around the world. He has also spoken of the risks involved and the need to seize the opportunity
The idea of resolving the issue of citizenship is a worthwhile goal, but expectations of it resulting from the Annapolis Conference are slim. There is a lack of faith in political leadership. The bottom line is, if the Annapolis Conference is doomed to mediocrity, there will be a resulting drag on democracy efforts in the region.
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